The Devil Never Sleeps

I live and work in an area prone to earthquakes. When will the big one hit? It’s not a matter of if but when. I also think there will be another global pandemic within the next decade. And with global warming, there will be more problems with extreme heat and flooding. I’m not a pessimist; but because I study complex systems I’m convinced that disasters (from the human perspective) are inevitable. The Devil Never Sleeps. That’s the title of Julia Kayyem’s book, subtitled “Learning to Live in an Age of Disasters”. I’m in full agreement with her premise.

 

This is not a theoretical book. Kayyem draws from her experience in crisis management, and her main points are peppered with practical examples. She begins with a problem: the paradox of preparation, or “how successful preventative measures can intuitively seem like a waste of time.” If nothing happens, or if there was a “near miss” with minimal consequences, it seems that things are okay and that the doomsayers were just cranks. Y2K is a good example. If not for all the behind-the-scenes work, it could have been a disaster, but instead there were only minor failures.

 

As our way of life becomes increasingly interconnected, as we become more efficient and cut out redundancy, as our networks become more dense, we are more enmeshed in a complex system. Such a system can provide some resiliency from the buffeting of a changing environment, but only for a while. But eventually every system will experience system failure – it adapts or is destroyed and a new system arises. I am a complex system. But with age, I will experience bodily system failure. I will die. It’s not a matter of if but when. And what exactly is system failure? The devil is in the interconnected details which cannot be easily isolated from each other.

 

Because the devil never sleeps, Kayyem advocates the goal of minimizing the consequences. Her mantra is that we have to try our hardest to make things less bad. How? You must have contingency plans, and they must be practiced. Constant vigilance! Failure modes are numerous, relying on “the last line of defense is a trap”. Avoid stupid deaths. Pay attention to the near misses. My mantra used to be good enough is good enough. Sometimes it simply isn’t. Kayyem’s book made me think of where I need to do a pre-mortem and start making preparations, even small ones, that could be widely applicable.

 

I’ve thought about how to pivot (in my day job of teaching) if we’re forced to shelter in place again, be it another pandemic or some other natural disaster, likely a flood or an earthquake in my area. But I’ve assumed that internet connections will still be up and running. A massive power outage, a serious cybersecurity breach that cripples the network, are very real possibilities. I’m less prepared for those, but now I’m thinking about them. Have I built in redundancies and backups? Minimally at best. Or I could have an accident that incapacitates me in some way or fall very ill. Ugh. I don’t even want to think about it.

 

I’d rather think about how minimal living systems arise and die, evolutionarily leaving behind a set of instructions of how to be born again. What is life if not a system that attempts to persist? The living organism tries to stave off the forces that threaten to starve it or eat it. Food is just high-energy molecules with weaker bonds that can be transduced into energy to stay alive, if not thrive. But disastrous death is always just around the corner. Humans today who live in “comfortable” situations (and perhaps their pets) may be the few organisms that aren’t watching their back 24-7. Every other creature from the bacterium to the blue whale has to get enough food and watch its back. The biochemistry of life has evolved to make things less bad should there be a problem. And that might be a fresh perspective for me in my research. The devil never sleeps. Biochemistry needs to keep it at bay.