I just finished reading Superforecasting
by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. Here are links to part 1 and part 2 where I
discuss things that jumped out at me from the book.
The appendix is titled “Ten Commandments for Aspiring
Forecasters”. There are actually eleven commandments listed, the final one
being “Don’t treat commandments as commandments.” How apt!
Here are the two that really struck a chord with me, because
I’d simply like to personally improve in these areas, and not even to be a
better forecaster. Most of each commandment is quoted verbatim (with specific
examples left out).
“#8: Look for the
errors behind your mistakes but beware of rearview-mirror hindsight biases. Don’t
try to justify your failures. Own them! Conduct unflinching postmortems: Where
exactly did I go wrong? And remember that although the more common error is to
learn too little from failure and to overlook flaws in your basic assumptions,
it is also possible to [overcompensate]. Also don’t forget to do postmortems on
your successes too. Not all successes imply that your reasoning was right. You
may have just lucked out by making offsetting errors. And if you keep
confidently reasoning along the same lines, you are setting yourself up for a
nasty surprise.”
Over the years, I have gotten much better with the
unflinching postmortem when I have gone wrong. I no longer try to justify them
as much as I did when I was younger. I can still outline my reasoning as to why
I made a certain decision based on the evidence available to me, but I no
longer use it to justify a bad or wrong decision. On the other hand, I am poor
at conducting success postmortems. I think about it for a moment, pat myself on
the back, and then move on with renewed (and sometimes unjustified) confidence.
This is an area that needs work. I’ve known about this blind spot before
reading Superforecasting, but it was
a good reminder. Tetlock and Gardner call hindsight bias the cardinal sin in
forecasting.
“#9: Bring out the
best in others and let others bring out the best in you. Master the fine
arts of team management, especially perspective taking (understanding the
arguments of the other side so well that you can reproduce them to the other’s
satisfaction), precision questioning (helping others to clarify their arguments
so they are not misunderstood), and constructive confrontation (learning to
disagree without being disagreeable). Wise leaders know how fine the line can
be between a helpful suggestion and micromanagerial meddling or between a rigid
group [and] an open-minded one.”
As I have taken on more administrative roles, I have been
learning to be a wise manager and leader. I made many mistakes and learned
things the hard way. I’m fairly good at perspective taking. I’m not as good
precision questioning and constructive confrontation, simply because I
sometimes get too “cold” in my effort to be methodical. When making the helpful
suggestion, I need to improve on the delivery, so that the listener hears
it as “helpful”. Otherwise I can make all sorts of suggestions that, as helpful as they might be, are not heeded. Tetlock and Gardner have a
chapter devoted to “The Leader’s Dilemma”. It was insightful, drawing great examples
from the Prussians and the Wehrmacht of all places. (To my elder brother the military
history aficionado: If you’re reading this, Helmuth von Moltke is the star of
the show!)
I have some strategies (honed through experience) for
bringing out the best in people in teams that I’ve worked with and directed. On
the other hand I don’t have good strategies for letting others bring out the
best in me. Sometimes it happens, but I suspect it happens less often than it
should. That’s something to work on.
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