Higher Education 2030, Augmented

What might higher education look like in 2030? Since I’ve lately been thinking about forecasting, and in light of Covid, I decided to read Academia Next by Bryan Alexander. The author maintains an interesting blog on future trends in higher education; I’ve been following it for five or so years.

The first part of Academia Next discusses present trends relating to higher education: demographics, technology, economic, cultural. In the second half, seven scenarios are envisioned for 2030.

·      Peak Higher Education

·      Health Care Nation

·      Open Education Triumphant

·      Renaissance

·      Augmented Campus

·      Siri, Tutor Me

·      Retro Campus

While written before the present Covid pandemic, one scenario explores what might happen if health care became the largest sector of the U.S. economy. (The book is primarily about the U.S., since that’s where Alexander is based and he’s been following national trends closely.) Another scenario (Siri, Tutor Me) envisions technological changes related to automation, cloud-based robo-tutor among others.

But the scenario that had most of my attention was Augmented Campus, not because it was the most likely, but because I found it intriguing to ponder. For a glimpse of what immersive and widespread augmented reality might feel like, I highly recommend Rainbows End by Vernor Vinge. (It was Alexander’s blog that alerted me to this excellent novel!) In any case, here’s Alexander’s setup to the chapter:

In 2030, American higher education is divided by digital strategy. One stratum is entirely online, with classes offered digitally by either older, bricks-and-mortar institutions or newer and wholly online enterprises. Another type of institution consists of colleges attended largely by commuter students who attend classes but don’t live on campus. The third portion of academia is residential and predicated upon face-to-face learning: for many it is the iconic representation of post-secondary learning. This is the familiar liberal arts college or state university, primarily teaching traditional-age undergraduates. Its engagement with the digital world has expanded, taking advantage of emerging technologies. We can call it the Augmented Campus.

I do think that higher education will continue to divide into at least two categories: the haves and the have-nots. I’m expecting the latter to be all-online as a cost-cutting measure. This is not because online education is always cheaper – my opinion is that online education can be excellent, but it might actually be more expensive to mount a very high-quality program. However, if you’re willing to sacrifice on quality, then there are a variety of ways to slash costs from physical buildings to human personnel. And with diminishing state support, I’m not sure community colleges (Alexander’s second stratum) will be able to survive while maintaining quality without raising fees given the population they are serving. Face-to-face learning may disappear for the have-nots.

For the haves, the Augmented Campus is idealist and idyllic. Limitations you face today can be augmented. Reality is augmented – you might call it super-reality. The description Alexander provides is sci-fi-ish cool with a blend of what’s hot in education lingo: hybrid learning, active learning, creativity, learning through play, leveraging technology… you can read more in his book. The physical space of the classroom and its furniture are no longer strictures. You could even have class outdoors when the weather is nice! As a chemist, I’ve been thinking about labs – especially since Covid has resulted in less-than-desirable alternatives. The augmented lab space could do so much more!

But all this augmentation could be distracting; a sensory overload. I’m not sure I could manage it, but perhaps this is because I had my formative years in an analog old-school environment. For kids used to multiple information streams, with video, textchat, and who-knows-what-else all going on at the same time, augmented reality education could be fully immersive if well-designed. This will further perpetuate the divide between the haves and the have-nots. A have-not student would be truly a fish-out-of-water at the Augmented Campus.

I would personally prefer the Retro Campus. Back to old school, low-tech. I think there’s little chance of that happening, short of an eVirus pandemic that significantly curbs the reach of technology. That might be a worse disaster given how much of our lives (in the first world) are tied to technology. I wonder what’s next.